Coherent long-term body-size responses across all Northwest Atlantic herring populations to warming and environmental change despite contrasting harvest and ecological factors.

Body size is a key component of individual fitness and an important factor in the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems. Disentangling the effects of environmental change, harvest and intra- and inter-specific trophic effects on body size remains challenging for populations in the wild. Herring in the Northwest Atlantic provide a strong basis for evaluating hypotheses related to these drivers given that they have experienced significant warming and harvest over the past century, while also having been exposed to a wide range of other selective constraints across their range. Using data on mean length-at-age 4 for the sixteen principal populations over a period of 53 cohorts (1962-2014), we fitted a series of empirical models for temporal and between-population variation in the response to changes in sea surface temperature. We find evidence for a unified cross-population response in the form of a parabolic function according to which populations in naturally warmer environments have responded more negatively to increasing temperature compared with those in colder locations. Temporal variation in residuals from this function was highly coherent among populations, further suggesting a common response to a large-scale environmental driver. The synchrony observed in this study system, despite strong differences in harvest and ecological histories among populations and over time, clearly indicates a dominant role of environmental change on size-at-age in wild populations, in contrast to commonly reported effects of fishing. This finding has important implications for the management of fisheries as it indicates that a key trait associated with population productivity may be under considerably less short-term management control than currently assumed. Our study, overall, illustrates the need for a comparative approach within species for inferences concerning the many possible effects on body size of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the wild.

Warming Accelerates the Onset of the Molecular Stress Response and Increases Mortality of Larval Atlantic Cod.

Temperature profoundly affects ectotherm physiology. Although differential thermal responses influence fitness, thus driving population dynamics and species distributions, our understanding of the molecular architecture underlying these responses is limited, especially during the critical larval stage. Here, using RNA-sequencing of laboratory-reared Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) larvae of wild origin, we find changes in gene expression in thousands of transcripts consistent with a severe cellular stress response at both ambient and projected (+2°C and +4°C) temperatures. In addition, specific responses to stress, heat, and hypoxia were commonly identified in gene ontology enrichment analyses and 33 of the 44 genes comprising the minimum stress proteome of all organisms were upregulated. Earlier onset of the stress response was evident at higher temperatures; concomitant increased growth and mortality suggests a reduction in fitness. Temporal differences in gene expression levels do not correspond to differences in growing degree days, suggesting negative physiological consequences of warming beyond accelerated development. Because gene expression is costly, we infer that the upregulation of thousands of transcripts in response to warming in larval cod might act as an energetic drain. We hypothesize that the energetically costly stress response, coupled with increased growth rate at warmer temperatures, leads to faster depletion of energy reserves and increased risk of mortality in larval cod. As sea surface temperatures continue to rise over the next century, reduced fitness of Atlantic cod larvae might lead to population declines in this ecologically and socioeconomically important species. Further, our findings expand our understanding of transcriptomic responses to temperature by ectothermic vertebrate larvae beyond the critical first-feeding stage, a time when organisms begin balancing the energetic demands of growth, foraging, development, and maintenance. Linking the molecular basis of a thermal response to key fitness-related traits is fundamentally important to predicting how global warming will affect ectotherms.

Differential reproductive plasticity under thermal variability in a freshwater fish (Danio rerio).

Human-driven increases in global mean temperatures are associated with concomitant increases in thermal variability. Yet, few studies have explored the impacts of thermal variability on fitness-related traits, limiting our ability to predict how organisms will respond to dynamic thermal changes. Among the myriad organismal responses to thermal variability, one of the most proximate to fitness-and, thus, a population's ability to persist-is reproduction. Here, we examine how a model freshwater fish (Danio rerio) responds to diel thermal fluctuations that span the species's viable developmental range of temperatures. We specifically investigate reproductive performance metrics including spawning success, fecundity, egg provisioning and sperm concentration. Notably, we apply thermal variability treatments during two ontogenetic timepoints to disentangle the relative effects of developmental plasticity and reversible acclimation. We found evidence of direct, negative effects of thermal variability during later ontogenetic stages on reproductive performance metrics. We also found complex interactive effects of early and late-life exposure to thermal variability, with evidence of beneficial acclimation of spawning success and modification of the relationship between fecundity and egg provisioning. Our findings illuminate the plastic life-history modifications that fish may undergo as their thermal environments become increasingly variable.

Multiple-batch spawning: a risk-spreading strategy disarmed by highly intensive size-selective fishing rate.

Can the advantage of risk-managing life-history strategies become a disadvantage under human-induced evolution? Organisms have adapted to the variability and uncertainty of environmental conditions with a vast diversity of life-history strategies. One such evolved strategy is multiple-batch spawning, a spawning strategy common to long-lived fishes that 'hedge their bets' by distributing the risk to their offspring on a temporal and spatial scale. The fitness benefits of this spawning strategy increase with female body size, the very trait that size-selective fishing targets. By applying an empirically and theoretically motivated eco-evolutionary mechanistic model that was parameterized for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we explored how fishing intensity may alter the life-history traits and fitness of fishes that are multiple-batch spawners. Our main findings are twofold; first, the risk-spreading strategy of multiple-batch spawning is not effective against fisheries selection, because the fisheries selection favours smaller fish with a lower risk-spreading effect; and second, the ecological recovery in population size does not secure evolutionary recovery in the population size structure. The beneficial risk-spreading mechanism of the batch spawning strategy highlights the importance of recovery in the size structure of overfished stocks, from which a full recovery in the population size can follow.

Gill area explains deviations from body size-metabolic rate relationship in teleost fishes.

Whether gill area constrains fish metabolism through oxygen limitation is a debated topic. Here, the authors provide insights into this question by analysing mass-specific metabolic rates across 44 teleost fishes extracted from FishBase. They explore whether species deviations from metabolic rates predicted by body mass can be explained by species gill area. They show that the gill area explains c. 26%-28% of species-level deviations from mass-specific metabolic rates. Their findings suggest that gill area might indeed be one of the factors limiting metabolic rate in fishes.

Genomic reaction norms inform predictions of plastic and adaptive responses to climate change.

Genomic reaction norms represent the range of gene expression phenotypes (usually mRNA transcript levels) expressed by a genotype along an environmental gradient. Reaction norms derived from common-garden experiments are powerful approaches for disentangling plastic and adaptive responses to environmental change in natural populations. By treating gene expression as a phenotype in itself, genomic reaction norms represent invaluable tools for exploring causal mechanisms underlying organismal responses to climate change across multiple levels of biodiversity. Our goal is to provide the context, framework and motivation for applying genomic reaction norms to study the responses of natural populations to climate change. Here, we describe the utility of integrating genomics with common-garden-gradient experiments under a reaction norm analytical framework to answer fundamental questions about phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation, their interaction (i.e. genetic variation in plasticity) and future adaptive potential. An experimental and analytical framework for constructing and analysing genomic reaction norms is presented within the context of polygenic climate change responses of structured populations with gene flow. Intended for a broad eco-evo readership, we first briefly review adaptation with gene flow and the importance of understanding the genomic basis and spatial scale of adaptation for conservation and management of structured populations under anthropogenic change. Then, within a high-dimensional reaction norm framework, we illustrate how to distinguish plastic, differentially expressed (difference in reaction norm intercepts) and differentially plastic (difference in reaction norm slopes) genes, highlighting the areas of opportunity for applying these concepts. We conclude by discussing how genomic reaction norms can be incorporated into a holistic framework to understand the eco-evolutionary dynamics of climate change responses from molecules to ecosystems. We aim to inspire researchers to integrate gene expression measurements into common-garden experimental designs to investigate the genomics of climate change responses as sequencing costs become increasingly accessible.

Salmon lice in the Pacific Ocean show evidence of evolved resistance to parasiticide treatment.

Parasitic salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) threaten the economic and ecological sustainability of salmon farming, and their evolved resistance to treatment with emamectin benzoate (EMB) has been a major problem for salmon farming in the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the Pacific Ocean, where wild salmon are far more abundant, has not seen widespread evolution of EMB-resistant lice. Here, we use EMB bioassays and counts of lice on farms from the Broughton Archipelago, Canada-a core region of salmon farming in the Pacific-to show that EMB sensitivity has dramatically decreased since 2010, concurrent with marked decrease in the field efficacy of EMB treatments. Notably, these bioassay data were not made available through public reporting by industry or by the federal regulator, but rather through Indigenous-led agreements that created a legal obligation for salmon-farming companies to provide data to First Nations. Our results suggest that salmon lice in the Pacific Ocean have recently evolved substantial resistance to EMB, and that salmon-louse outbreaks on Pacific farms will therefore be more difficult to control in the coming years.

Combining population genomics with demographic analyses highlights habitat patchiness and larval dispersal as determinants of connectivity in coastal fish species.

Gene flow shapes spatial genetic structure and the potential for local adaptation. Among marine animals with nonmigratory adults, the presence or absence of a pelagic larval stage is thought to be a key determinant in shaping gene flow and the genetic structure of populations. In addition, the spatial distribution of suitable habitats is expected to influence the distribution of biological populations and their connectivity patterns. We used whole genome sequencing to study demographic history and reduced representation (double-digest restriction associated DNA) sequencing data to analyse spatial genetic structure in broadnosed pipefish (Syngnathus typhle). Its main habitat is eelgrass beds, which are patchily distributed along the study area in southern Norway. Demographic connectivity among populations was inferred from long-term (~30-year) population counts that uncovered a rapid decline in spatial correlations in abundance with distance as short as ~2 km. These findings were contrasted with data for two other fish species that have a pelagic larval stage (corkwing wrasse, Symphodus melops; black goby, Gobius niger). For these latter species, we found wider spatial scales of connectivity and weaker genetic isolation-by-distance patterns, except where both species experienced a strong barrier to gene flow, seemingly due to lack of suitable habitat. Our findings verify expectations that a fragmented habitat and absence of a pelagic larval stage promote genetic structure, while presence of a pelagic larvae stage increases demographic connectivity and gene flow, except perhaps over extensive habitat gaps.

Allee effects and the Allee-effect zone in northwest Atlantic cod.

According to the theory of compensatory dynamics, depleted populations should recover when the threat responsible for their decline is removed because per capita population growth is assumed to be highest when populations are at their smallest viable sizes. Yet, many seriously depleted fish populations have failed to recover despite threat mitigation. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks off Newfoundland, despite 30 years of dramatically reduced fishing mortality and numerous fishery closures, have not recovered, suggesting that drivers other than fishing can regulate the growth of collapsed fish populations, inhibiting or preventing their recovery. Here, using Bayesian inference, we show strong evidence of Allee effects in a south Newfoundland cod population, based on data on recruitment and spawning stock biomass. We infer the Allee-effect threshold, below which recovery is impaired. We demonstrate the necessity of data at low population sizes to make inferences about the nature of low-abundance dynamics. Our work indicates that Allee effects are not negligible in commercially exploited fish populations, as commonly projected, and that they represent an inhibitory force that can effectively prevent recovery from overfishing. Our findings contrast with prevailing fisheries management practices that assume compensatory dynamics at low abundances with potential to seriously overestimate the recovery potential of collapsed populations.

Multiple-batch spawning as a bet-hedging strategy in highly stochastic environments: An exploratory analysis of Atlantic cod.

Stochastic environments shape life-history traits and can promote selection for risk-spreading strategies, such as bet-hedging. Although the strategy has often been hypothesized to exist for various species, empirical tests providing firm evidence have been rare, mainly due to the challenge in tracking fitness across generations. Here, we take a 'proof of principle' approach to explore whether the reproductive strategy of multiple-batch spawning constitutes a bet-hedging. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study species and parameterized an eco-evolutionary model, using empirical data on size-related reproductive and survival traits. To evaluate the fitness benefits of multiple-batch spawning (within a single breeding period), the mechanistic model separately simulated multiple-batch and single-batch spawning populations under temporally varying environments. We followed the arithmetic and geometric mean fitness associated with both strategies and quantified the mean changes in fitness under several environmental stochasticity levels. We found that, by spreading the environmental risk among batches, multiple-batch spawning increases fitness under fluctuating environmental conditions. The multiple-batch spawning trait is, thus, advantageous and acts as a bet-hedging strategy when the environment is exceptionally unpredictable. Our research identifies an analytically flexible, stochastic, life-history modelling approach to explore the fitness consequences of a risk-spreading strategy and elucidates the importance of evolutionary applications to life-history diversity.

Thermal variability during ectotherm egg incubation: A synthesis and framework.

Natural populations of ectothermic oviparous vertebrates typically experience thermal variability in their incubation environment. Yet an overwhelming number of laboratory studies incubate animals under constant thermal conditions that cannot capture natural thermal variability. Here, we systematically searched for studies that incubated eggs of ectothermic vertebrates, including both fishes and herpetofauna, under thermally variable regimes. We ultimately developed a compendium of 66 studies that used thermally variable conditions for egg incubation. In this review, we qualitatively discuss key findings from literature in the compendium, including the phenotypic effects resulting from different patterns of thermally variable incubation, as well as the ontogenetic persistence of these effects. We also describe a physiological framework for contextualizing some of these effects, based on thermal performance theory. Lastly, we highlight key gaps in our understanding of thermally variable incubation and offer suggestions for future studies.

Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity.

Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary and detection methods are still developing. Here, we employ a novel statistical algorithm based on the Bayesian online change-point detection framework to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and (or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are small. The analyses suggest that increasing F increasingly sensitized cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of accounting for human-induced mortality in regime shift analyses of marine ecosystems.

Increasing temperatures accentuate negative fitness consequences of a marine parasite.

Infectious diseases are key drivers of wildlife populations and agriculture production, but whether and how climate change will influence disease impacts remains controversial. One of the critical knowledge gaps that prevents resolution of this controversy is a lack of high-quality experimental data, especially in marine systems of significant ecological and economic consequence. Here, we performed a manipulative experiment in which we tested the temperature-dependent effects on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)-a parasite that can depress the productivity of wild-salmon populations and the profits of the salmon-farming industry. We explored sea-louse impacts on their hosts across a range of temperatures (10, 13, 16, 19, and 22 °C) and infestation levels (zero, 'low' (mean abundance ± SE = 1.6 ± 0.1 lice per fish), and 'high' infestation (6.8 ± 0.4 lice per fish)). We found that the effects of sea lice on the growth rate, condition, and survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon all worsen with increasing temperature. Our results provide a rare empirical example of how climate change may influence the impacts of marine disease in a key social-ecological system. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate-driven changes to disease impacts in wildlife conservation and agriculture.

Consequences of Single-Locus and Tightly Linked Genomic Architectures for Evolutionary Responses to Environmental Change.

Genetic and genomic architectures of traits under selection are key factors influencing evolutionary responses. Yet, knowledge of their impacts has been limited by a widespread assumption that most traits are controlled by unlinked polygenic architectures. Recent advances in genome sequencing and eco-evolutionary modeling are unlocking the potential for integrating genomic information into predictions of population responses to environmental change. Using eco-evolutionary simulations, we demonstrate that hypothetical single-locus control of a life history trait produces highly variable and unpredictable harvesting-induced evolution relative to the classically applied multilocus model. Single-locus control of complex traits is thought to be uncommon, yet blocks of linked genes, such as those associated with some types of structural genomic variation, have emerged as taxonomically widespread phenomena. Inheritance of linked architectures resembles that of single loci, thus enabling single-locus-like modeling of polygenic adaptation. Yet, the number of loci, their effect sizes, and the degree of linkage among them all occur along a continuum. We review how linked architectures are often associated, directly or indirectly, with traits expected to be under selection from anthropogenic stressors and are likely to play a large role in adaptation to environmental disturbance. We suggest using single-locus models to explore evolutionary extremes and uncertainties when the trait architecture is unknown, refining parameters as genomic information becomes available, and explicitly incorporating linkage among loci when possible. By overestimating the complexity (e.g., number of independent loci) of the genomic architecture of traits under selection, we risk underestimating the complexity (e.g., nonlinearity) of their evolutionary dynamics.

Estimating marine survival of Atlantic salmon using an inverse matrix approach.

The marine phase of anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is the least known yet one of the most crucial with regards to population persistence. Recently, declines in many salmon populations in eastern Canada have been attributed to changes in the conditions at sea, thus reducing their survival. However, marine survival estimates are difficult to obtain given that many individuals spend multiple winters in the ocean before returning to freshwater to spawn; therefore, multiple parameters need to be estimated. We develop a model that uses an age-structured projection matrix which, coupled with yearly smolt and return abundance estimates, allows us to resample a distribution of matrices weighted by how close the resulting return estimates match the simulated returns, using a sample-importance-resampling algorithm. We test this model by simulating a simple time series of salmon abundances, and generate six different scenarios of varying salmon life histories where we simulate data for one-sea-winter (1SW)-dominated and non-1SW dominated populations, as well as scenarios where the proportion returning as 1SW is stable or highly variable. We find that our model provides reasonable estimates of marine survival for the first year at sea (S1), but highly uncertain estimates of proportion returning as 1SW (Pr) and survival in the second year at sea (S2). Our exploration of variable scenarios suggests the model is able to detect temporal trends in S1 for populations that have a considerable 1SW component in the returns; the ability of the model to detect trends in S1 diminishes as the proportion of two-sea-winter fish increases. Variability in the annual proportion of fish returning as 1SW does not seem to impact model accuracy. Our approach provides an instructive stepping-stone towards a model that can be applied to empirical abundance estimates of Atlantic salmon, and anadromous fishes in general, and therefore improve our knowledge of the marine phase of their life cycles as well as examining spatial and temporal trends in their variability.

Cyclical and stochastic thermal variability affects survival and growth in brook trout.

Directional changes in temperature have well-documented effects on ectotherms, yet few studies have explored how increased thermal variability (a concomitant of climate change) might affect individual fitness. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we investigated how bidirectional temperature change can affect survival and growth of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and whether the survival and growth responses differ between two populations, using four thermal-variability treatments (mean: 10 °C; range: 7-13 °C): (i) constancy; (ii) cyclical fluctuations every two days; (iii) low stochasticity (random changes every 2 days); (iv) high stochasticity (random changes daily). Recently hatched individuals were monitored under thermal variability (6 weeks) and a subsequent one-month period of thermal constancy. We found that variability can positively influence survival, relative to thermal constancy, but negatively affect growth. The observations reported here can be interpreted within the context of Jensen's Inequality (performance at average conditions is unequal to average performance across a range of conditions). Projections of future population viability in the context of climate change would be strengthened by increased experimental attention to the fitness consequences of stochastic and non-stochastic thermal variability.

The role of fish life histories in allometrically scaled food-web dynamics.

Body size determines key ecological and evolutionary processes of organisms. Therefore, organisms undergo extensive shifts in resources, competitors, and predators as they grow in body size. While empirical and theoretical evidence show that these size-dependent ontogenetic shifts vastly influence the structure and dynamics of populations, theory on how those ontogenetic shifts affect the structure and dynamics of ecological networks is still virtually absent.Here, we expand the Allometric Trophic Network (ATN) theory in the context of aquatic food webs to incorporate size-structure in the population dynamics of fish species. We do this by modifying a food web generating algorithm, the niche model, to produce food webs where different fish life-history stages are described as separate nodes which are connected through growth and reproduction. Then, we apply a bioenergetic model that uses the food webs and the body sizes generated by our niche model to evaluate the effect of incorporating life-history structure into food web dynamics.We show that the larger the body size of a fish species respective to the body size of its preys, the higher the biomass attained by the fish species and the greater the ecosystem stability. We also find that the larger the asymptotic body size attained by fish species the larger the total ecosystem biomass, a result that holds true for both the largest fish in the ecosystem and each fish species in the ecosystem.This work provides an expanded ATN theory that generates food webs with life-history structure for chosen species. Our work offers a systematic approach for disentangling the effects of increasing life-history complexity in food-web models.

Stable coexistence of genetically divergent Atlantic cod ecotypes at multiple spatial scales.

Coexistence in the same habitat of closely related yet genetically different populations is a phenomenon that challenges our understanding of local population structure and adaptation. Identifying the underlying mechanisms for such coexistence can yield new insight into adaptive evolution, diversification and the potential for organisms to adapt and persist in response to a changing environment. Recent studies have documented cryptic, sympatric populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in coastal areas. We analysed genetic origin of 6,483 individual cod sampled annually over 14 years from 125 locations along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast and document stable coexistence of two genetically divergent Atlantic cod ecotypes throughout the study area and study period. A "fjord" ecotype dominated in numbers deep inside fjords while a "North Sea" ecotype was the only type found in offshore North Sea. Both ecotypes coexisted in similar proportions throughout coastal habitats at all spatial scales. The size-at-age of the North Sea ecotype on average exceeded that of the fjord ecotype by 20% in length and 80% in weight across all habitats. Different growth and size among individuals of the two types might be one of several ecologically significant variables that allow for stable coexistence of closely related populations within the same habitat. Management plans, biodiversity initiatives and other mitigation strategies that do not account for the mixture of species ecotypes are unlikely to meet objectives related to the sustainability of fish and fisheries.

Fine-scale population differences in Atlantic cod reproductive success: A potential mechanism for ecological speciation in a marine fish.

Successful resource-management and conservation outcomes ideally depend on matching the spatial scales of population demography, local adaptation, and threat mitigation. For marine fish with high dispersal capabilities, this remains a fundamental challenge. Based on daily parentage assignments of more than 4,000 offspring, we document fine-scaled temporal differences in individual reproductive success for two spatially adjacent (<10 km) populations of a broadcast-spawning marine fish. Distinguished by differences in genetics and life history, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from inner- and outer-fjord populations were allowed to compete for mating and reproductive opportunities. After accounting for phenotypic variability in several traits, reproductive success of outer-fjord cod was significantly lower than that of inner-fjord cod. This finding, given that genomically different cod ecotypes inhabit inner- and outer-fjord waters, raises the intriguing hypothesis that the populations might be diverging because of ecological speciation. Individual reproductive success, skewed within both sexes (more so among males), was positively affected by body size, which also influenced the timing of reproduction, larger individuals spawning later among females but earlier among males. Our work suggests that spatial mismatches between management and biological units exist in marine fishes and that studies of reproductive interactions between putative populations or ecotypes can provide an informative basis on which determination of the scale of local adaptation can be ascertained.